Performance of algorithms using wrist temperature for retrospective ovulation day estimate and next menses start day prediction: a prospective cohort study

What this work gives Aellic

Retrospective ovulation estimation from wrist temperature: MAE 1.2–1.3 days, 89 % of estimates within ±2 days (PAE2). Carries three constants of the temperature-based ovulation estimate: the signal threshold of +0.2 °C, the confidence band of ±2 days, and the honesty rule that a non-detection is not a finding — only ~80.8 % of cycles reach the threshold at all, and ~19 % produce no usable signal whatsoever. A non-detection therefore explicitly does NOT mean “anovulatory”.

Where this sits in the engine

3 declared sites: constants and thresholds in the code that point at this entry.

• Cycle Phases and cycle-aware baselines 3 sites